Doubling of Indian Farmers’ Income by 2021-22: A Synoptic View


Agriculture is the main means of livelihood, directly and indirectly, for most of India’s population. But its contribution is being reduced in total GDP. The share of this sector in 2000-01 was only 27.8 percent which decelerated to 18.53 percent in 2011-12, which further decelerated to 14.65 percent in 2019-20 (Figure-1). According to the annual growth rate, the sector has achieved a compound annual growth rate of 3.3 percent during 2000-01 to 2011-12, at the 2011-12 constant price, which was slightly increased only about 3.4 during 2011-12 to 2019-20, compared to the previous period. Although appreciable growth has been observed in the industry (8%) and services (9.4%) in the previous period (2000-01 to 2011-12), the industrial sector in the current period (2011-12 to 2019-20) is about 6.9 percent and the service sector achieved a growth rate of 7.6 percent (Figure 2). With this growth in agriculture, the gap between agriculture and the industrial and services sector has widened. As a consequence, the trend of crisis and migration on the farmers is increasing. According to a study, it has been found that the agrarian crisis is continuously increasing in agricultural communities and the inequalities in per capita (worker) income between agriculture and non-agricultural sectors, and the continuous increase in the gap between them. It is, therefore, necessary that there should be a steady increase in the farmer’s income so that their quality of life can be improved.

Figure 1: Sector-Wise CAGRs (%) in India from 2000-01 to 2019-20.

Figure 2: Sector-Wise Share to Total GDP at Constant Prices (2011-12) in India

  1. Current Status of Indian Agriculture:

Keeping in mind the present situation of the farmers in India, the current Prime Minister of India gave the slogan of “Resolution to doubling the Indian farmers’ income by 2021-22” and to achieve this goal, the people of the community are progressively moving towards this direction with the government.

It is clear from the previous study that the overall development in agriculture is determined mainly by the area under the crop itself. Besides this, the livestock sector is also growing appreciably and steadily out of all the sub-sectors of agriculture and its growth rate is at the forefront in comparison to all the sub-sectors (Figure 3). Based on the Livestock Census Report-2019 released by the Department of Animal Husbandry and Dairying (DAHD), the data revealed that the livestock population in India has grown by 4.6% from 512 million in 2012 to about 536 million in 2019.

Figure 3: Species-Wise Share of Livestock Population in India in 2019

Figure 4 also reveals that the Gross Value Added (GVA) of agriculture is increasing at a very slow rate as compared to the Industry, and services sector during 2013-14 to 2019-20. It’s important to highlight that among all the sectors, the services sector is growing very fastly during the same period of time. It is a matter of concern before the policymakers of the country. The crisis in agriculture is largely due to the two major causes such as the agriculture sector in India has become less profitable ventures and involve more hardship, consequently, the young population is not willing to do and they are looking for jobs outside the agriculture sector.

Figure 4: Sectoral Gross Value Added at 2011-12 Constant Prices (Rs in Billion)
   Source: Computed by author
  1. Different Perspectives of Development:

After study and analysis, it is evaluated in agriculture-sub sector-wise scenario reveals that the crop sector has provided almost two-thirds of the contribution during the period 2004-05 to 2011-12 and the somehow the similar trend is also in progress for the next interactive phase i.e., 2011-12 to 2019-20. However, according to a study, it has also been found that a lot of change is required for the change in this area. Following the 1980s education, the commercialization in the 1990s was mainly accompanied by an increase in the commercialization as well as the legalization of agriculture and this education was seen as a major diversification especially in favor of the horticulture sector. While a small but hopeful increase in livestock conservation can be observed during 2011-12 to 2021-22. The scenario shows that livestock and horticultural crops will be the most effective means for agricultural development in the future.

  1. Strategies to Double the Farmers’ Income

1)      Growth in Total Factor Productivity (TFP) Given the TFP growth, a scenario has been prepared and it estimates the total TFP growth. In this analysis we have used the 3.5 growth rate as an optimistic scenario and it is believed that the above attainable scenarios would make it possible to increase production by 20 to 28 percent (Figure 5).

2)  According to a study, we can arrive at the conclusion that there can be a substantial increase in production through resources by efficient irrigation management. If additional area to the total area under farming is brought under micro-irrigation, it can lead to a significant increase in the agriculture production value (Figure 5).

3)    This section studies how farmers can be reduced from post-harvest losses. Post-harvest management (management of post-harvest losses) is very important as it provides important land for maintaining quality and quantity of produce and Its importance has become very important mainly in respect of horticulture and perishable things. From the point of view of agriculture, the expansion of agriculture from non-traditional areas such as horticulture and horticulture can provide a beneficial solution that can help in doubling the income of the farmers. The study also found that in the post-reform period, there has been an increase in prices of cash crops and the cropping pattern changes towards cash crops and horticulture have a significant effect on growth.

4)   In the realization of our goals, in addition to the crop sector, as the payment of land can also attribute to provide an additional income as well as income security.

5)     Previous studies have found that huge yield-gap conditions persist in the agricultural sector. The study by the Planning Commission of India express that about 6 to 300 percent in cereals, 5 to 185 percent in oilseeds, 16 to 167 percent in sugarcane yield-gap conditions exists. And this gap can be reduced through scientific and management intervention. if there is a reduction of 25–75 percent in this yield gap, the total crop production can be increased from 1.7% to 5%. In this context, the rigorous effort by the researchers as well as research and development organizations can bridge this gap is urgent required (Figure 5).

6)      This section evaluates that how better value generation can increase. At the same time, it has been estimated that by 15–45 percent target estimated price realization, which is possible by increasing the adeptness of the domestic market system and internal commercialization, through which can in some way help in increasing the income of the farmers (Figure 5).

Figure- 5: Possibility of Sources of Growth in Agriculture Sector in India

   Source: Computed by author

From the above study and analysis, it is found that achieving the target of doubling the farm income of the country is an important task. If this task is carried out to unify the works with different departments, research institutes, scientists and people of the different community in the country, therefore, this important task is not impossible but somehow may be achieved.

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